Not all baobab species in Madagascar will be able to adapt to climate change
The open access database and models relate to the adaptation to climate change of species of the Baobab genus in Madagascar. The great island in the Indian Ocean is home to seven Baobab species (of the eight existing in the world), six of which are endemic. Preventing their disappearance is a major ecological challenge and an issue included in CIRAD's research themes.
The study conducted by scientists from CIRAD and the University of Picardie in France, Fofifa in Madagascar, and the University of Santa-Catarina in Brazil addresses the vulnerability of baobab species to future climate change and their ability to migrate to climate-favorable habitats. Using statistical models to estimate species climatic niche and climate projections from three models of general movements, the study published in 2021 predicted the future distribution and extinction risk of each baobab species by 2100. In addition to temperature, these distribution models take into account other climatic variables than the annual temperature alone, such as precipitation regime, water balance, or temperature seasonality to determine which climatic variables contribute most to the respective decline of each species.
The database is the result of fifteen years of field exploration, and of satellite image interpretation. Each tree is associated with its species name, geographical coordinates and the name of the person who collected the data. Linked to this database is the version of the software used to produce species distribution models (SDMs), the code used to produce each prediction model, and instructions for reproducing it. Research results (tables, figures) have also been associated with the dataset for conservation purposes.
Downloaded more than 200 times since it was put online, the dataset has a high reuse potential: the impact study of climatic variables on the presumed future distribution of baobab species has resulted in rich predictive models that can be generalized or used for other tropical plant species. In addition, the database of tree distribution in the country is a unique resource for future studies on baobabs, which may also contribute to this species conservation in Madagascar.
Related publication :
TAGLIARI Mario M., Pascal DANTHU, Jean-Michel LEONG POCK TSY, Cyrille CORNU, Jonathan LENOIR, Vítor CARVALHO-ROCHA, Ghislain VIEILLEDENT. 2021. Not all species will migrate poleward as the climate warms: the case of the seven baobab species in Madagascar. Global Change Biology. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15859